← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 78% | 79% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 17% | 7.00 | value: +22% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 8% | 3% | 13.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 589.00 | 3511.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1701.65 | 1377.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.40 | -6.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 50.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 0.78 |
| state index | 1.02 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |