← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Fri, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 48% | 43% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.50 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 25% | 37% | 3.75 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1592.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1407.26 | 1492.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.47 | -18.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| state index | -1.40 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |