← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 49% | 45% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +3% |
| NEC win | 25% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2591.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1498.99 | 1505.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.73 | -1.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |