← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 37% | 26% | 2.70 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 36% | 43% | 2.50 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Roda JC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1314.00 | 583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1453.08 | 1536.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.10 | 43.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 25.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.45 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |