← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 54% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 20% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 2044.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1644.54 | 1609.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.42 | -1.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| league points | 48.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.91 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |