← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sat, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 45% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 28% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 947.00 | 3504.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1415.88 | 1413.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.24 | -12.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| league points | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| state index | -1.09 | -1.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |