← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Fri, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 40% | 42% | 2.37 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 32% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1585.00 | 946.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1526.37 | 1609.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.01 | 21.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |