← Eredivisie 2006-07 · Sun, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 69% | 74% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 11% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 211.00 | 6785.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1597.65 | 1370.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.62 | 3.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 41.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 0.62 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.82 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |