← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 54% | 67% | 1.66 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 28% | 18% | 3.20 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 18% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1435.69 | 1568.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -52.12 | -8.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 39.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.73 |
| state index | -1.23 | 0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |