← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 64% | 74% | 1.44 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.20 | fair |
| Heracles win | 13% | 9% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 289.00 | 654.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1524.86 | 1442.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.38 | 45.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |