← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 39% | 92% | 2.30 | value: +112% ⚠ |
| NAC Breda win | 36% | 3% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 5% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2115.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1422.45 | 1688.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.79 | 4.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 33.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.45 |
| state index | -0.50 | 1.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |