← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 39% | 20% | 2.35 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 32% | 37% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 43% | 3.25 | value: +40% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 654.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1600.12 | 1705.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.85 | 4.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 50.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 2.15 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |