← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 43% | 33% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 52% | 2.75 | value: +43% ⚠ |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 25% | 15% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6498.00 | 1020.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1438.09 | 1431.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.70 | -9.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 35.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.03 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |