← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Wed, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 53% | 73% | 1.72 | value: +25% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 15% | 3.75 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 22% | 12% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1016.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1422.59 | 1444.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.04 | -37.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 31.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.22 |
| state index | -0.42 | -1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |