← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Wed, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 38% | 17% | 2.37 | fair |
| Heracles win | 35% | 43% | 2.62 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 39% | 3.35 | value: +32% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 650.00 | 2111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.51 | 1442.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.84 | 12.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 36.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |