← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Wed, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 46% | 28% | 2.00 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 28% | 47% | 3.20 | value: +50% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1289.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1540.87 | 1553.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.15 | 24.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| league points | 52.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.72 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |