← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Wed, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 66% | 70% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 12% | 9% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1593.00 | 2293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1563.06 | 1471.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.88 | 26.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 54.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.34 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |