← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 42% | 26% | 2.20 | fair |
| AZ win | 31% | 46% | 3.00 | value: +38% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1590.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1551.89 | 1652.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.71 | 41.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 51.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 2.26 |
| state index | 0.12 | 1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |