← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 48% | 73% | 1.95 | value: +43% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 10% | 3.40 | fair |
| Heracles win | 25% | 17% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 646.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1464.38 | 1409.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.58 | -4.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.06 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |