← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 40% | 28% | 2.30 | fair |
| NEC win | 33% | 49% | 2.70 | value: +33% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2107.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1424.41 | 1509.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.29 | 9.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.48 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |