← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Tue, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 66% | 95% | 1.36 | value: +29% ⚠ |
| Draw | 21% | 5% | 4.33 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 12% | 0% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 277.00 | 2103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1649.40 | 1427.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.32 | -0.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| league points | 67.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.23 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.88 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |