← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 43% | 29% | 2.10 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 29% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 37% | 3.30 | value: +22% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 275.00 | 1583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1495.82 | 1562.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.27 | 9.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 40.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.70 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |