← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 51% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 23% | 18% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1279.00 | 2283.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1528.58 | 1466.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.82 | -10.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| league points | 48.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |