← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 44% | 38% | 2.10 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 29% | 21% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 41% | 3.40 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 639.00 | 1005.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1400.87 | 1420.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.45 | -21.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 30.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| state index | -1.00 | -1.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |