← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 51% | 70% | 1.83 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.60 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 23% | 11% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6483.00 | 3196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1442.73 | 1396.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.81 | -7.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 31.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |