← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Fri, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 57% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 18% | 12% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1587.16 | 1511.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.84 | 6.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 52.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |