← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 61% | 94% | 1.50 | value: +41% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 3% | 3.85 | fair |
| Heracles win | 16% | 3% | 5.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1582.46 | 1437.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.76 | -36.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 49.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |