← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 70% | 93% | 1.28 | value: +19% ⚠ |
| Draw | 20% | 5% | 4.50 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 11% | 2% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1576.00 | 2094.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1714.01 | 1426.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.99 | -14.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 50.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.36 | -0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |