← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 42% | 32% | 2.20 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 31% | 43% | 2.95 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1509.93 | 1546.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.33 | -12.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 42.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.62 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |