← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 58% | 40% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 57% | 3.75 | value: +114% ⚠ |
| Roosendaal win | 17% | 3% | 5.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roosendaal | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1306.57 | 1605.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.20 | 36.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 8.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.29 | 1.46 |
| state index | -1.34 | 1.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |