← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 45% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 28% | 12% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 44% | 3.40 | value: +49% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1265.00 | 1569.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1532.93 | 1727.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.40 | 20.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 2.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.20 | 1.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |