← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 39% | 30% | 2.37 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 34% | 32% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 38% | 3.30 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 1722.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1633.57 | 1647.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.57 | 6.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| league points | 61.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 2.25 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |