← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 74% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 12% | 5.00 | fair |
| NEC win | 9% | 6% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1684.02 | 1496.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.26 | -46.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 70.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| state index | 1.28 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |