← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 42% | 17% | 2.15 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 31% | 46% | 3.00 | value: +39% ⚠ |
| Draw | 27% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 625.00 | 3182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1428.76 | 1444.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.40 | 13.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 27.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.71 |
| state index | -1.55 | -0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |