← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 52% | 50% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 37% | 3.50 | value: +29% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 23% | 13% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3176.00 | 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1452.79 | 1693.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.66 | -2.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 20.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 2.15 |
| state index | 0.21 | 1.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |