← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 42% | 36% | 2.20 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 619.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1560.59 | 1631.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.65 | -5.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| league points | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.59 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |