← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 74% | 57% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.50 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 9% | 30% | 10.00 | value: +195% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1715.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1745.04 | 1516.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.79 | 2.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 62.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.41 |
| state index | 1.53 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |