← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roda JC win | 57% | 84% | 1.60 | value: +34% ⚠ |
| Draw | 24% | 15% | 3.75 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 19% | 1% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 984.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1491.65 | 1437.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.68 | -6.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |