← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 55% | 66% | 1.66 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 14% | 3.65 | fair |
| Heracles win | 20% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 618.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1487.16 | 1406.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -65.07 | -42.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 39.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| state index | -1.13 | -1.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |