← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 38% | 64% | 2.45 | value: +57% ⚠ |
| ADO Den Haag win | 35% | 17% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 19% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6462.00 | 1257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1413.52 | 1544.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.01 | -23.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 24.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.63 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |