← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 50% | 27% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 51% | 3.40 | value: +74% ⚠ |
| ADO Den Haag win | 24% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waalwijk | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 6456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1505.90 | 1424.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.94 | 8.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 35.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |