← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 71% | 85% | 1.25 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 19% | 11% | 5.00 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 10% | 4% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1555.00 | 247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1720.85 | 1383.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.30 | 20.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 46.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.04 |
| state index | 1.37 | -0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |