← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 66% | 58% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 33% | 4.33 | value: +42% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 12% | 9% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PSV | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1885.07 | 1636.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.26 | 5.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| league points | 66.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.54 | 1.65 |
| state index | 2.11 | 0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |