← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 59% | 50% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.50 | value: +15% |
| Roosendaal win | 15% | 17% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Roosendaal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2072.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1423.12 | 1322.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.83 | -8.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 25.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.31 |
| state index | -0.69 | -1.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |