← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 54% | 77% | 1.72 | value: +32% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 17% | 3.60 | fair |
| Heracles win | 21% | 6% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 605.00 | 1548.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1426.33 | 1552.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.88 | -9.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.72 |
| state index | -1.15 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |