← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 56% | 60% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.60 | value: +18% |
| NAC Breda win | 19% | 8% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 605.00 | 2066.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1632.93 | 1428.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.66 | 5.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 40.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |