← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV win | 37% | 41% | 2.50 | value: +4% |
| AZ win | 35% | 26% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 240.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1689.87 | 1878.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.95 | 14.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| league points | 55.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 2.52 |
| state index | 1.04 | 2.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |