← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 38% | 50% | 2.37 | value: +19% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 36% | 34% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 16% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 6448.00 | 2247.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1401.92 | 1477.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.62 | -18.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 21.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.32 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |