← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 55% | 91% | 1.66 | value: +50% ⚠ |
| Draw | 26% | 9% | 3.50 | fair |
| Roosendaal win | 19% | 0% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roosendaal | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1297.68 | 1533.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.33 | -9.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 5.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 1.56 |
| state index | -2.84 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |