← Eredivisie 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 72% | 49% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 28% | 4.50 | value: +27% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 9% | 22% | 11.00 | value: +147% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1694.00 | 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1737.82 | 1376.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.90 | 35.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| league points | 55.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.37 | -0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |